Open a Rundown before you buy one.
This is what a client gets on day 14, built on a made-up company so you can see every page: the renewals at risk, who left and why, the health score, the attack plan and the numbers. Yours looks like this, on your accounts.
Fernhill Analytics · Retention Rundown, day 14
Sample: a made-up company
Day 14 at a glance
$18.4M ARR · 1,140 accounts
- ARR at risk, next 90 days
- $1.37M
- 23 accounts, each with a next step
- Expansion not being worked
- $640K
- Under-licensed accounts
- Agreed GRR
- 89.6%
- Trailing twelve months
- Agreed NRR
- 115.0%
- On signed definitions
Renewals at risk, next 90 days
Top 6 of 23 · $858K of $1.37M
Every renewal due in the next 90 days, ranked by dollars at risk. Each one has a reason, a next step and an owner, and the full list of 23 is in the workbook.
| Account | ARR | Renews in | Why it's at risk | Next step and owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halden Freight | $214K | 48 days | Champion left six weeks ago. Usage down 38%. | Executive sponsor call this weekCSM, Enterprise |
| Marlow Dental Group | $186K | 67 days | Year one, no admin trained: the pattern behind last year's losses. | Train an admin before the renewal callCSM, Enterprise |
| Quarrystone Labs | $162K | 62 days | Two escalations open for more than 30 days. | Close both before the renewal callSupport lead |
| Tidewell Logistics | $121K | 22 days | Asked for a price review after this year's uplift. | Offer two years at today's priceAccount manager |
| Ostara Learning | $98K | 40 days | 41 of 120 seats in use. | Right-size the seats, keep the logoCSM, Mid-market |
| Pinecrest Property Co. | $77K | 57 days | No business review in nine months. | Book a review with the renewal on the agendaCSM, SMB |
Who left and why
$1.66M lost in the last 12 months
Recoded from CRM notes, support tickets and usage. Before the Rundown, 61% of the lost revenue was coded “Other”.
Never adopted
No admin trained, low usage from month two
$520KLost their champion
Sponsor left; nobody replaced the relationship
$380KPrice at renewal
Uplifts above 7%, mostly in SMB
$290KMoved to a competitor
Four accounts, one competitor
$210KBudget cut
Real, and mostly unavoidable
$160KProduct gap
Two missing integrations
$100K
Finding: $900K of the $1.66M, 54%, left because they never adopted or lost their champion. Both show up months before the renewal, which makes them the two losses worth working first.
Health score, rebuilt from real churn
The signals that came before Fernhill's actual losses, and how much more often accounts with each one left. The new score weights each signal by that lift.
Champion left in the last six months
4.1×Usage down 30% or more in a quarter
3.4×No business review in 180 days
2.9×Under half the seats in use
2.6×An escalation open more than 30 days
2.2×
Finding: 14 of the 23 accounts now at risk were green on the old health score. It measured logins, not the things that came before a loss.
90-day attack plan
The levers worth the most dollars, the accounts each one touches, and where to start. Two of three shown.
Fix year one
$520K lost last year
- What the data says
- First-year accounts churn at 3.7 times the rate of accounts past two years, worst in SMB. That's onboarding, not the product.
- Start here
- 41 first-year accounts renew before June. Train an admin on each before the renewal call.
- Owner
- VP Customer Success
Replace the champion
$380K lost last year
- What the data says
- Accounts that lost their champion churned at 4.1 times the rate of the rest, and nobody was told when it happened.
- Start here
- Six accounts renewing in the next 90 days lost theirs this year. A new-sponsor meeting on each within two weeks.
- Owner
- VP Customer Success and head of sales
Want each lever run the same way on every renewal, inside Salesforce? That's a playbook build, its own service.
Retention explorer
Sample: Fernhill Analytics, a made-up company
Period
Segment
Metric
- ARR
- $18.4M
- 1,140 accounts
- NRR, trailing 12 months
- 115.0%
- −1.0 pts vs a year ago
- GRR, trailing 12 months
- 89.6%
- −1.0 pts vs a year ago
- ARR at risk, next 90 days
- $1.37M
- 23 accounts
- All accounts
- Other segments
- 100%: every dollar kept
- Act now
- Watch
- Healthy
- Year 1102.3%
- Year 2113.7%
- Year 3+121.7%
Year 1: 102.3% NRR · 25% of all ARR · Watch
Read: All accounts NRR went from 116.5% to 115.0% over the last 8 quarters. Weakest tenure band: year 1 at 102.3%. The average hides the split between segments. Pick one to see where retention breaks.
Show the numbers as a table
| Quarter | All accounts | Enterprise | Mid-market | SMB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | 116.5% | 123.2% | 114.9% | 104.1% |
| Q1 '25 | 116.4% | 123.8% | 114.5% | 103.2% |
| Q2 '25 | 116.2% | 124.1% | 114.1% | 102.1% |
| Q3 '25 | 116.0% | 124.4% | 113.7% | 100.9% |
| Q4 '25 | 115.5% | 124.0% | 113.4% | 99.8% |
| Q1 '26 | 115.4% | 124.6% | 113.0% | 98.7% |
| Q2 '26 | 115.2% | 124.9% | 112.7% | 97.7% |
| Q3 '26 | 115.0% | 125.0% | 112.5% | 96.9% |
Net revenue retention by start cohort
| Started | Yr 1Year 1 | Yr 2Year 2 | Yr 3Year 3 | Yr 4Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 106% | 111% | 114% | 117% |
| 2022 | 104% | 109% | 113% | |
| 2023 | 101% | 107% | ||
| 2024 | 98% |
Finding: each new cohort starts weaker. Year-one NRR fell from 106% to 98% in three years, while older cohorts keep growing. Onboarding is slipping, not the product.
Definitions sheet
How every number in this Rundown is counted, and who owns each rule. Drafted on day 4, signed off at the day-14 walkthrough.
| Item | How it's counted | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| ARR | Annual value of active recurring contracts on the last day of the month. One-time and services fees excluded. | CFO |
| Churn | Counted on the contract end date, not the day notice is given. | VP Customer Success |
| Downgrades | Contraction in the month the downgrade takes effect. | VP Customer Success |
| Multi-year prepay | Counted at annual contract value, not cash received. | CFO |
| Credits | One-time credits excluded from ARR. Recurring discounts included. | CFO |
| Co-terms and add-ons | Measured at the parent contract's anniversary. | RevOps |
| Price increases | Counted as expansion, reported on their own line. | CFO |
| Overrides | Allowed with approval, logged with a reason, reviewed every quarter. | CEO |
Included when billing exports exist. Fernhill sent its billing data, so this Rundown ties the agreed NRR to finance's revenue, line by line. Without billing data, you get everything else on this page.
- NRR computed from finance's recognized revenue104.0%
- Multi-year prepay counted at annual value, not cash+5.6 pts
- One-time credits taken out of ARR+3.1 pts
- Co-terms measured at the anniversary+2.4 pts
- Mid-term downgrades dated when they take effect−1.4 pts
- Two approved overrides, logged with the CFO+1.3 pts
- Agreed NRR, signed off by leadership115.0%
Finding: the two numbers were never in conflict. Five definition choices explain all 11.0 points between them, and each one now has an owner.
In your workspace
- Renewals at risk, rankedWorkbook
- Health score, rebuilt from your churnWorkbook
- Churn report: who left and whyPDF
- 90-day attack plan: who to call firstPDF
- Definitions sheet, signedPDF
- Executive summarySlides
Updates
- Day 0All exports in the workspace. The 14 days start.
- Day 4Definitions draft posted. Review booked with the CEO and VP Customer Success.
- Day 7At-risk list, first pass: 23 renewals worth $1.37M. Owners being assigned.
- Day 11Attack plan drafted: who to call first, and the three levers worth the most dollars.
- Day 12Health score rebuilt. 14 of the 23 at-risk accounts were green on the old one.
- Day 14Walkthrough done. Numbers signed off by the CEO and VP Customer Success, with the CFO in the room.
Fernhill Analytics is made up. Every number on this page is illustrative and adds up, so you can check the work.
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